The New England Patriots (0-1) will travel to Hard Rock Stadium in Miami to face off against the Dolphins (0-1) for their Week 2 matchup. Both teams will be in the hunt for a get-right game following disappointing Week 1 results.

If there is such a thing as a mutual must-win matchup in Week 2, this would be it. Both the Patriots, who had a lackluster showing against the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Dolphins, who got flat-out embarrassed by the Indianapolis Colts, are desperate for stabilization early in their 2025 campaigns. Pats HC Mike Vrabel will be hungry for his first win in charge of New England’s squad, while Fins HC Mike McDaniel will try to inspire a job-preserving rebound from his team. The Dolphins have dominated this divisional matchup for a while now, and QB Tua Tagovailoa boasts a perfect 7-0 record in his career against New England, so the Patriots have a steep hill to climb if they want to win on Sunday.

Here are some potential keys for a Patriots victory in South Beach for the first time since 2019:

Pats to Target Dolphins’ Weak Run Defense to Improve Drive-Starters

Patriots QB Drake Maye spoke on the importance of drive-starters in his post-game press conference after his team’s Week 1 defeat to the Raiders. Because the Patriots do not currently have a go-to pass catcher reliable enough to make the offensive unit a pass-first operation, they will have to hope that their run game can get their drives going against Miami. The Colts were able to generate 156 yards on 40 rush attempts, with both RB Jonathan Taylor and RB DJ Giddens averaging just under 4 yards per carry. Between RB Rhamondre Stevenson and rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson, the Pats should be able to exploit Miami’s defensive front to establish a similar rushing stat line.

The Patriots will need better run blocking from their offensive line if they are to establish themselves as a run-first, play-action outfit. The Raiders were able to initiate contact quickly after the snap via unique run stunts and disguised blitzes, preventing the Pats’ running backs from reaching the second level. OC Josh McDaniels noted that this attrition may help his squad learn how to combat unique run-stopping schemes: “It’s really difficult to simulate movement sometimes in the running game without being in pads in a game against another opponent that does it differently than the team you practice against all the time. I think that is time on task, and it’s a great opportunity for us to see that in a live setting.”

Quarterback Dual for Redemption After Turnover-Riddled Week 1

Maye posted a deceptively average-looking stat line against the Raiders: 30/46, 287 yards, 1 recovered fumble, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Maye faltered as the game went on, turning the ball over early in the third quarter and appearing hesitant on his downfield throws throughout the second half. Patriots fans and affiliated media outlets expressed concern about the apparent lack of development from their #3 overall 2024 draft selection, citing his continued skittishness in the pocket and inability to connect on short-to-medium throws. Tagovailoa was even worse last Sunday, logging 14/23, 114 yards, 1 lost fumble, 1 TD, and 2 INTs. The sputtering Dolphins offense was one of the premier storylines around the NFL, causing many to speculate about both Tagovailoa’s limitations as a franchise quarterback and McDaniel’s job security in Miami. So, there will be no shortage of either motivation or pressure for both quarterbacks on Sunday.

OC Josh McDaniels’s offensive scheme relies heavily upon pre-snap adjustments and blitz recognition to ensure adequate protection and alignment. If the Pats are able to run the ball effectively, that will allow QB Drake Maye to operate off of play-action movement, rather than strictly out of shotgun formation. Where the Colts focused more on setting up RPO plays for QB Daniel Jones, the Patriots might use Maye’s throw-on-the-run ability on bootlegs and rollouts to secure respectable gains outside the numbers.

Patriots Barely Pull Ahead in the Health Matchup

New England having a run-in with the injury bug two weeks into the season is decidedly suboptimal. The latest injury report out of the Patriots’ camp indicates that CB Christian Gonzalez remains out with a hamstring injury, now joined by DE Keion White who did not practice due to illness. LB Marte Mapu and T Morgan Moses are also listed as questionable after being limited participants. DT Christian Barmore, WR Kayshon Boutte, LB Christian Ellis, OLB Harold Landry, and CB Charles Woods were all removed from the injury report following today’s practice. To put it simply, the Patriots do not have the roster depth to contend with sweeping injury problems. The Pats’ secondary already showed weakness against the Raiders’ mediocre pass-catchers (excluding TE Brock Bowers) without the help of their star corner, so the same group lining up against WR Tyreek Hill and WR Jaylen Waddle is a bit concerning.

That being said, Miami is not exactly 100% either. The Fins are expected to be without CB Storm Duck (yes, that’s his real name), OL Austin Jackson, DT Benito Jones, and TE Darren Waller. CB Ethan Bonner and RB Jaylen Wright are also listed as doubtful after their limited participation in Friday’s practice. Miami will most likely be playing with a depleted secondary, so the Patriots’ receiving corps should have ample opportunity to cash in against inferior opposition.

Prediction: Patriots 17, Dolphins 24

I can’t deny the losing streak that New England currently faces on the road against Miami. As much as I want to believe the Patriots could deliver a gut-punch to the Dolphins after their Week 1 dismantling at the hands (hooves?) of the Colts, the fact of the matter is that New England always finds ways to lose in Miami and against Tua. And, unfortunately, I do not think the bucking of this trend begins this Sunday.

I think Mike McDaniel gets his offense back to a respectable level, scoring a couple touchdowns in the first half, while DC Anthony Weaver’s defense limits the Patriots’ offense to 10 points or fewer. I think the Patriots will learn from their Week 1 game adjustment mistakes and grow into this game after halftime, climbing back into the contest via a QB Drake Maye-led scoring drive and a long K Andy Borregales boot early in the second half. However, I think the Dolphins will garner enough juice from playing at home to ice the game in the fourth quarter through the talent of their pass catchers and McDaniel’s creativity.

I have the Dolphins controlling this one early on and winning comfortably, but the Patriots make some strides on the offensive side of the ball.